According to predictions by the National Bank of Canada, the economy will improve over 2011. However, just as the U.S. economy starts feeling its oats, a shock from Japan, temporary in nature, could slow the pace of monetary policy normalization in emerging Asia, keeping global liquidity abundant. Thus despite the Japanese disaster and a modest headwind from the recent rise of energy prices, the global economy is likely to do well in 2011, provided that geopolitical tensions remain contained.

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